TRREB Forecasts Current Market Conditions to Remain Over Summer

TORONTO, July 06, 2022 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — Higher borrowing costs continued to impact home sales in June 2022. Sales totalled 6,474 – down by 41 per cent compared to last year’s strong result. The number of transactions was also down compared to May 2022, but this is often the case due to the seasonal nature of the market.

The average selling price, at $1,146,254, remained 5.3 per cent above the June 2021 level, but continued to trend lower on a monthly basis. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.9 per cent year-over-year, but also experienced a month-over-month dip compared to May. Annual price growth was driven more so by less expensive market segments, including townhouses and condominium apartments.

“Home sales have been impacted by both the affordability challenge presented by mortgage rate hikes and the psychological effect wherein home buyers who can afford higher borrowing costs have put their decision on hold to see where home prices end up. Expect current market conditions to remain in place during the slower summer months. Once home prices stabilize, some buyers will re-enter the market despite higher borrowing costs,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

While the number of transactions was down year-over-year, the number of new listings was little changed over the same period. This has provided for more balance in the market, resulting in a more moderate annual pace of price growth.

“Listings will be an important indicator to watch over the next few months. With the unemployment rate low, the majority of households aren’t in a position where they need to sell their home. If would-be sellers decide to take a wait-and-see attitude over the next few months, it’s possible that active listings could trend lower as well. This could cause market conditions to tighten somewhat, providing some support for home prices,” said TRREB Chief Market Analyst Jason Mercer.

“Our region continues to grow because we attract people and businesses from all around the world. All of these people will require a place to live, whether they choose to buy or rent. Despite the shorter-term impact of higher borrowing costs, housing demand will remain strong over the long-term, as long as we can produce homes within which people can live. Policymakers at all levels need to make this their key goal,” said TRREB CEO John DiMichele.

Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price June 1–30, 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 2,422 1,152,175 5,988 3,835 1,078,684 6,384
Rest of GTA (“905”) 4,052 1,142,715 10,359 7,218 1,094,467 9,809
GTA 6,474 1,146,254 16,347 11,053 1,088,991 16,193
TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type June 1–30, 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416   905   Total 416   905   Total
Detached 747   2,265   3,012   1,737,012   1,361,862   1,454,902  
Yr./Yr. % Change -30.8 % -44.3 % -41.4 % 2.4 % 2.4 % 3.5 %
Semi-Detached 245   389   634   1,343,378   987,009   1,124,723  
Yr./Yr. % Change -41.8 % -38.0 % -39.5 % 5.9 % 7.8 % 6.4 %
Townhouse 243   854   1,097   1,027,050   906,311   933,056  
Yr./Yr. % Change -42.6 % -44.4 % -44.0 % 9.1 % 8.3 % 8.6 %
Condo Apartment 1,165   513   1,678   771,267   692,598   747,216  
Yr./Yr. % Change -38.5 % -42.8 % -39.9 % 7.4 % 13.2 % 9.3 %

June 2022 Year-Over-Year Per Cent Change in the MLS® HPI

  Composite (All Types) Single-Family Detached Single-Family Attached Townhouse Apartment
TRREB Total 17.89 % 16.44 % 17.76 % 20.49 % 23.36 %
Halton Region 11.36 % 10.84 % 12.22 % 10.30 % 17.88 %
Peel Region 21.89 % 20.91 % 20.97 % 24.18 % 28.20 %
City of Toronto 15.94 % 12.71 % 12.36 % 21.79 % 22.39 %
York Region 21.54 % 19.53 % 24.05 % 25.81 % 26.39 %
Durham Region 19.13 % 18.60 % 19.47 % 23.25 % 27.56 %
Orangeville 14.73 % 12.43 % 15.00 % 24.91 % 42.02 %
South Simcoe County1 19.15 % 18.55 % 22.30 % 18.13 % 29.33 %
           
 Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board
1South Simcoe includes Adjala-Tosorontio, Bradford West Gwillimbury, Essa, Innisfil and New Tecumseth
 

Please note the methodology used to calculate MLS® HPI has been changed, For more information, click HERE.

Year-to-Date Summary of TRREB MLS® System Sales and Average Price June 2022
  2022 2021
  Sales Average Price New Listings Sales Average Price New Listings
City of Toronto (“416”) 17,534 1,195,412 33,589 24,118 1,051,443 36,415
Rest of GTA (“905”) 29,731 1,293,731 62,063 45,891 1,088,001 66,543
GTA 47,265 1,257,257 95,652 70,009 1,075,407 102,958
YTD TRREB MLS® System Sales & Average Price by Home Type June 2022
  Sales Average Price
  416   905   Total 416   905   Total
Detached 4,770   16,159   20,929   1,916,771   1,571,637   1,650,298  
Yr./Yr. % Change -26.7 % -37.9 % -35.7 % 12.6 % 19.4 % 18.4 %
Semi-Detached 1,607   2,749   4,356   1,467,976   1,147,445   1,265,694  
Yr./Yr. % Change -29.5 % -35.3 % -33.3 % 13.4 % 24.3 % 20.3 %
Townhouse 1,750   6,234   7,984   1,087,143   1,031,480   1,043,681  
Yr./Yr. % Change -34.3 % -34.2 % -34.3 % 16.6 % 23.3 % 21.7 %
Condo Apartment 9,280   4,322   13,602   803,871   734,692   781,890  
Yr./Yr. % Change -25.8 % -23.7 % -25.2 % 15.2 % 23.9 % 17.5 %

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board

Seasonally Adjusted TRREB MLS® Sales and Average Price1  
         
  Sales Month-over-Month % Chg. Average Price Month-over-Month % Chg.
June ’21 9,999 -5.4 % $1,077,648 0.6 %
July ’21 9,869 -1.3 % $1,087,104 0.9 %
August ’21 9,294 -5.8 % $1,115,218 2.6 %
September ’21 9,153 -1.5 % $1,138,213 2.1 %
October ’21 9,715 6.1 % $1,153,935 1.4 %
November ’21 9,210 -5.2 % $1,180,466 2.3 %
December ’21 8,912 -3.2 % $1,209,834 2.5 %
January ’22 8,618 -3.3 % $1,270,667 5.0 %
February ’22 9,104 5.6 % $1,283,440 1.0 %
March ’22 7,916 -13.0 % $1,255,078 -2.2 %
April ’22 6,735 -14.9 % $1,208,155 -3.7 %
May ’22 6,204 -7.9 % $1,175,111 -2.7 %
June ’22 5,910 -4.7 % $1,139,957 -3.0 %
         

Source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board; CREA Seasonal Adjustment. 1 Preliminary seasonal adjustment undertaken by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).  Removing normal seasonal variations allows for more meaningful analysis of monthly changes and underlying trends.

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